U.S. online holiday sales smashed forecasts, hitting a record $257 billion.
Amazon is quietly scraping independent retailer sites to feed its AI agents.
UPS is testing AI vision to catch "decoy returns" before they hit the warehouse.
Source: Smart Sheet
Store Openings Set to Outpace Closures in 2026
After a rough year where closures jumped 12%, physical retail is bouncing back. Analysts project 1,118 net store openings in 2026, led primarily by aggressive expansion from grocers and discount retailers. The "retail apocalypse" narrative is dead; the "retail recalibration" is in full swing. → via Fox Baltimore
U.S. Holiday Sales Beat Forecasts, Hitting $257 Billion
The final numbers are in, and they are massive. U.S. online holiday sales topped $257 billion, significantly beating Adobe’s original forecast. The surge was driven by deeper discounts and, for the first time, a measurable lift from "AI shopping assistants" that helped consumers find deals faster. → via Forbes
Why 2025 Was Shopify’s Best Year Yet
Shopify is on a tear. The platform reported $92 billion in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for 2025, a stunning 32% increase year-over-year. The growth is being fueled by a successful pivot toward enterprise clients and the widespread adoption of its new AI tools, solidifying its position as the operating system for modern retail. → via Modern Retail
Source: The Freebie Guy
Subscribe & Save Now Used by 25% of Amazon Shoppers
The lock-in is working. New data reveals that 25% of all U.S. Amazon customers now have an active Subscribe & Save order. This massive adoption of recurring revenue models suggests that for staples, consumers have largely put their purchasing on autopilot. → via CIRP
Amazon's "Agentic Hypocrisy": Bots for Me, But Not for Thee
Amazon is playing a double game. While the company aggressively blocks third-party AI agents from scraping its own site, it is simultaneously deploying its own AI bots to crawl the web and aggregate products it doesn't carry. This "asymmetry" effectively allows Amazon to train its models on competitors' data while walling off its own. → via Forbes
Source: Fashion Dive
Amazon Holds Firm, Temu and Shein Fall: The New Ecommerce Landscape After Tariffs
In 2025, U.S. ecommerce experienced a "structural reckoning." New tariff policies have aggressively favored domestic giants like Amazon (GMV: $394.5B), while causing foreign platforms to crater. Temu and Shein saw their monthly active users plummet from peaks of 35 million to fewer than 10 million as rising costs and the end of de minimis rules erased their price advantage. The market is shifting decisively toward local brands and trusted domestic platforms. → via Merca2.0
TikTok Shop to Hit $20 Billion in Sales
The growth curve is vertical. TikTok Shop is projected to account for nearly 20% of the entire social commerce market in 2025, with sales expected to exceed $20 billion in 2026. By 2028, that number could climb to $30 billion, fundamentally reshaping where product discovery happens. → via Retail Dive
It's official: TikTok is no longer just a social network. With over $500 million in sales during Cyber Week alone, the platform has successfully transitioned into a full-fledged commerce utility. Major brands are now treating it as a primary sales channel rather than a marketing experiment. → via Business Insider
Source: Supply Chain Dive
UPS Pilots AI Tool to Stop "Decoy Returns"
UPS is fighting back against return fraud. The carrier is piloting a new AI-powered vision tool designed to identify "decoy returns"—where customers ship back trash or empty boxes to secure a refund. With this fraud tactic accounting for 9% of all returns, the tech aims to stop the $218 average loss per incident before it happens. → via Supply Chain Dive
The $800 Billion "Returnity" Reality
The returns loop is broken. The global cost of returns has swelled to $800 billion, creating a massive "take-back cycle" that eats margins and clogs warehouses. Retailers are now forced to treat returns not as a service cost, but as a standalone supply chain that requires its own P&L. → via Forbes
White House Delays Furniture Tariffs
A reprieve for importers: The White House has delayed planned tariff increases on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets for one year. The move spares sellers from an immediate 30-50% price hike, providing breathing room for supply chains already strained by global volatility. → via Supply Chain Dive
In this post, we break down the key levers you can control to navigate complexity in cross-border selling and position yourself for growth in the next planning cycle.
Scale Without Chaos: A Multichannel Guide for Sellers
If you’re selling on Amazon, Walmart, Shopify, Target Plus, or any of the 250+ channels modern sellers use, this guide is for you.
Scale Without Chaos breaks down how to simplify your operations and scale confidently — from picking the right selling model to keeping listings, inventory, orders, and fulfillment perfectly in sync.
Source: TaggBox
Social commerce isn't just growing; it's taking over. Here are the critical numbers every operator needs to know:
Market Size: Projected to hit $8.8 trillion globally by 2030 (CAGR of 31.6%).
Discovery: 27% of all internet users now use social media as their primary tool for finding new products.
Spend: The average U.S. social buyer now spends $937 annually on social platforms.
Influence: Social platforms are now the #1 driver of brand awareness for Gen Z.
Six Forces Shaping the Consumer of 2026
A new study identifies the six pillars defining the 2026 shopper: AI Integration, Radical Trust, Holistic Wellness, Value Orientation, Authenticity, and Proof-Led Sustainability. If your brand isn't hitting at least three of these notes, you are likely invisible to the modern consumer. → via Forbes
Tech Startups Are Handing Out... Nicotine?
Move over, kombucha taps. A new trend is sweeping Silicon Valley: free nicotine pouches. Companies like Palantir and various startups are reportedly stocking offices with Zyn and other nicotine pouches, positioning them as "productivity perks" to help engineers focus. It’s the buzziest (and most questionable) employee benefit of 2026. → via NY Post
